Australia is entering a critical stretch in the race for the final places inside the top six of the world rankings. That will determine the top seeding band when the Rugby World Cup 2027 pools are drawn in December.
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Finishing in that top band would spare them from landing in the same pool as powerhouse sides like South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, and England. Those teams are expected to battle among themselves for top-ranking positions before the year ends. Making it even more important for the Wallabies to control their own fate.
For Australia, the path is simple on paper but difficult in reality: they must defeat at least one of Ireland or France in the coming weeks, ideally both. Wins against either of these European giants would give the Wallabies a strong case for staying inside the coveted top band.
Their seeding is especially important this cycle because, as the host nation, Australia will automatically be placed in Pool A. Missing the top six would not be disastrous; they would still have a manageable route out of the pool stage. But finishing outside the top band could complicate their path toward the knockout rounds.
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If they finish second in their pool, they would face one of the third-ranked teams in the round of 16, which is not the worst scenario. Still, claiming a win over a major northern-hemisphere opponent would likely open the door to a much smoother run in the tournament.
This weekend’s results will be decisive. Argentina’s clash with Scotland, in particular, has major implications for how the rankings may shake out. For Australia to climb into the top six and therefore Band 1 for the 2027 draw, they must beat Ireland by more than 15 points.
And hope that Argentina fails to defeat Scotland at Murrayfield. If Argentina loses outright, the Wallabies would only need a simple win in Dublin to jump into sixth place. There is even a scenario in which Australia could move as high as fifth: they would need a victory of more than 15 points over Ireland while France loses to Fiji by a margin greater than 15.
Of course, Australia also faces the risk of falling backward. Should Scotland defeat Argentina while the Wallabies lose to Ireland, Scotland would leapfrog Australia in the standings. Other teams are also in pivotal positions. New Zealand could reclaim the number-one spot in the World Rugby Rankings if it defeats England and if Italy somehow pulls off a surprise win against South Africa.
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The Springboks, currently holding the top ranking, cannot add to their point total due to the 14.08-point gap between themselves and Italy. The All Blacks can, however, significantly close the gap. A win by more than 15 points over England, combined with a narrow South Africa win of fewer than 15 points, would shrink the margin to just 0.25 points.
England, meanwhile, has their own opportunity for a big jump. If they beat New Zealand and Australia defeats Ireland, England could climb all the way to third, a spot they have not held since February 2022.
France is also capable of climbing into third place if it beats Fiji and England, while Ireland loses its matches to New Zealand and Australia. But France faces a downside risk as well: if they lose to Fiji by more than 15 points, they could fall outside the top six entirely.
While these ranking battles unfold, a very different but equally important story is developing in the United Arab Emirates. The Brazilian men’s rugby team is in Dubai competing for the final remaining berth at the Rugby World Cup 2027.
Brazil has two matches left to keep their hopes alive: the first is against Belgium on Thursday, the 13th, followed by a showdown with Namibia on Tuesday, the 18th. Their opening match against Samoa ended in defeat, which means their path is now narrow.
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