FIFA 2026 Tickets: The Super Eagles of Nigeria still have a slim, although unlikely, chance of qualifying for the FIFA World Cup 2026 to be hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the USA. After a disappointing result in Bloemfontein, South Africa, on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, their qualification hopes now hang by a thread. With just two matches left, Nigeria’s fate is no longer in its own hands. Instead, it will now rely on a combination of strong performances, favorable outcomes in other matches, and pure luck.
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It’s a painful situation for a team that had high hopes at the beginning of the qualifying series. To qualify directly, the Super Eagles must win their remaining two matches. These final games will be against Lesotho and the Benin Republic. In addition to winning, Nigeria must also score heavily to cover the current goal difference shortage they face against South Africa. South Africa currently leads Group C with 17 points and a significant goal difference advantage over Nigeria.
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Nigeria is on 11 points, the same as Benin and Rwanda, though Benin has a game in hand. For this direct route to work, South Africa would need to lose their final two matches, also by wide margins, to cover their goal difference. At the same time, Benin Republic must hesitate in their remaining games to avoid overtaking or tying Nigeria on points. Only the group winner qualifies automatically from each group.
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This direct qualification route looks like a long shot, what many would describe as winning the lottery twice. Nigeria could goal for qualification through the playoffs. The best four runners-up from the nine qualifying groups will go into a playoff round. The winner of that playoff will then face an intercontinental playoff for a final slot at the World Cup. For Nigeria to be among the best runners-up, they must win both remaining games with 17 points.

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Several other teams like Gabon, Madagascar, Congo, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Uganda are already sitting on or above 17 points and are in stronger positions than Nigeria. Nigeria reaches 17 points; they will still need to hope that many of these teams either lose or drop points in their final fixtures. The competition for the playoff spots is stiff, and Nigeria is at a significant disadvantage due to earlier slip-ups in the campaign.
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Points alone might not be enough goal difference and head-to-head results could also come into play. The turning point came in the 1-1 draw with South Africa, where Nigeria’s captain, William Troost-Ekong, scored an own goal. That result could prove to be the fatal blow in the qualification race. It was a match Nigeria desperately needed to win.

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The pressure is now huge, not just on the players, but also on the coaching staff and the football federation. With all factors considered, the Super Eagles will need more than just good performances; they will need near miracles. Even with maximum points from their last two games, Nigeria’s chances remain slim unless other teams collapse. It’s a scenario requiring perfect execution on Nigeria’s part and a dramatic unraveling of their rivals.
This kind of situation rarely unfolds as needed, but in football, surprises can happen. Fans will have to hope and pray for the best. Ultimately, while it’s mathematically possible for Nigeria to qualify either directly or through the playoffs, the chances are realistically bleak. A lot would need to go their way, and history suggests that relying on so many external outcomes rarely works out. For the Super Eagles, it’s known about pride, performance, and salvaging dignity in the remaining games.

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Q1: What must Nigeria do to qualify directly for the FIFA World Cup 2026?
Nigeria must win both remaining games and hope South Africa loses both, while also overcoming the goal difference gap in Group C.
Q2: Why is the Benin Republic a major threat to Nigeria’s chances?
Benin is tied on points with Nigeria but has a game in hand, meaning they could easily surpass Nigeria if they win that extra match.
Q3: How does CAF’s new format affect Nigeria’s qualification path?
Only group winners qualify directly; the best four runners-up enter the playoffs, and the winner then faces an intercontinental playoff.
Q4: What teams are ahead of Nigeria in the playoff qualification race?
Teams like Gabon, Cameroon, and Uganda already have 17+ points, placing Nigeria at a disadvantage in the playoff race.
Q5: What role does goal difference play in Nigeria’s qualification hopes?
If teams are tied on points, goal difference, and head-to-head results could decide who advances, making Nigeria’s task even harder.