The Ashes have taught sports fans one clear lesson: never celebrate too early when you’re facing Australia on their own turf. That thought was hard to ignore once the draw for the men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 finished. And analysts started breaking down all the possible knockout scenarios.
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Very quickly, people began to feel a sense of deja vu in Sydney. A World Cup hosted by Australia, and a pretty favorable draw for England, what could go wrong this time? The tournament organizers did not waste time building a story around that idea. They even brought out Jonny Wilkinson in the promotional video.
It looked like a cross between Mad Max and Wacky Races, tearing across a dusty Australian landscape. When Australia wakes up and realizes Thursday marks exactly 666 days until kickoff, that uneasy feeling about history repeating itself will only grow stronger. Looking at the draw, England should feel more fortunate than some of their biggest competitors.
They have landed in one of the easier groups out of the six: Wales, Tonga, and Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, the very first game of the tournament, scheduled in Perth on October 1, could potentially pit the Wallabies against the All Blacks. Starting with a rivalry like that is dramatic enough.
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Rugby World Cup: Ireland Risk Another Argentina Quarter-Final
But the winner could end up on the same side of the knockout bracket as defending champions South Africa, along with France. If results go as many expect, only one of South Africa, New Zealand, or France might reach the final.
Even South Africa, the current top dog, will not feel comfortable about the idea of having to beat. Both New Zealand and France are on back-to-back weekends just to reach the championship game in Sydney on November 13.
Ireland and Scotland won’t have a calm start either. They were drawn together in the pool stage in France in 2023, and now their paths could collide again in 2027. With 24 countries now taking part, the entire format has been redesigned.
If Scotland finish second in their group, they are likely headed straight into a last-16 meeting with France. Ireland, on the other hand, could easily find themselves facing Argentina, a team that has haunted them in previous knockout rounds in the quarter-finals.
That doesn’t mean England is guaranteed a smooth journey to the final, but most of the challenges in their way are familiar ones. Ideally for them, Welsh rugby will have improved by then, but even the most loyal Welsh supporter would struggle to bet on a repeat of Wales beating England at Twickenham as they did in 2015.
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Rugby World Cup Final: Australia Faces Potential Home Soil Exit
Tonga and Zimbabwe, currently ranked 18th and 24th in the world, don’t look like major threats either. England could have faced tougher opposition, like Georgia or a resurgent Samoa. A likely round-of-16 matchup for England would be Italy.
Italy has never beaten England, and that kind of fixture is exactly the sort of focus. A manageable knockout game, England’s coaching staff would hope to see at that point in the tournament. Then comes the bigger question: what happens after that?
If Australia can’t get past New Zealand, it opens up the very real possibility of Australia being knocked out of the World Cup on home soil once again by England. On the other hand, if anything is going to fire up the Australian team and its fans, it’s the chance to avoid that embarrassment.
Two years is plenty of time, too, and Australia may add more talent from the National Rugby League before kickoff. Whoever survives that side of the draw, an older Ireland or Argentina in a semi-final wouldn’t be the worst outcome for England. Argentina is still improving, and Ireland is always tough, but the path suddenly looks more open than it seemed just days ago.
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