The final major international rugby window of the year brings much more than national pride or bragging rights. These matches will have a real and immediate effect on the World Rugby Men’s Rankings. Influencing not only who finishes the year as the world’s number one team but also which nations will secure the all-important seedings for the Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw.
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With top spots on the line and several teams fighting for their best possible position, this weekend’s fixtures carry enormous weight. At the top of the rankings, South Africa still looks relatively safe for now. The Springboks hold a commanding 14.08-point lead over Italy.
Which means even if Italy somehow manages a win, South Africa won’t be knocked off the number one spot this week. Their position is also protected even if New Zealand defeats England. The math just doesn’t allow for New Zealand to overtake them unless South Africa slips.
For the All Blacks, the path to the top is narrow but not impossible. The closest they could get to number one is within 0.25 points, and that would require a strong, possibly dominant, win at Twickenham. Their chances improve dramatically if South Africa fails to beat Italy.
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Rugby World Cup: Wallabies Chase Crucial Top-Six Return in Dublin
In that scenario, a New Zealand victory by any margin would push them back into first place. Reversing the current 1.70-point gap between them and the Springboks. Ireland sits solidly in third place and is unlikely to move this week.
They host Australia, but because they hold a significant 7.16-point advantage over the Wallabies, a win doesn’t add anything to their rating. Even a loss won’t drop them lower than fourth. The only way Ireland shifts at all is if they beat Australia, but England also manages to defeat New Zealand.
That unusual combination would push England up into third, a spot they last held briefly in early 2022. The fiercest competition this weekend revolves around the fight to finish inside the Top Six. A position expected to secure a premium Band 1 seed for the Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw.
Several teams are in the mix, and the margins separating them are slim. Australia enters the weekend with a clear mission. The Wallabies can break back into the Top Six if they beat Ireland by more than 15 points and if Argentina loses to Scotland.
If Argentina loses, even a narrow Australian win by any margin would still be enough for them to grab sixth place. On the other hand, if Australia falters in Dublin, their hopes depend entirely on Argentina’s result.
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Rugby World Cup Final: Wales Facing Must-Win Test Against Japan
France faces surprising pressure despite being ranked fourth. Their match against Fiji offers minimal points, only a possible 0.18 with a large win because Fiji sits ninth. If both Australia and Argentina do what they need to leapfrog Les Bleus, France could fall out of the Top Six for the first time since January 2020.
Fiji, meanwhile, has a huge opportunity to make history. If they upset France by more than 15 points, and Argentina and Australia both lose. Fiji would climb into the Top Six for the first time since the rankings were created. It’s a long shot, but entirely possible.
Scotland could also move up. If they beat Argentina and Australia loses to Ireland, Scotland will rise above the Wallabies. Italy, too, has something to play for. If the Azzurri manage an upset over South Africa and Scotland loses, Italy would climb at least one place.
Georgia, sitting in 11th, cannot improve their position no matter how it performs against 24th-ranked Canada. However, they are vulnerable from below. Japan could overtake them if Japan beats Wales by more than 15 points.
Wales must win. Anything less than victory against Japan would see them slide into Band 3 for the Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw, an outcome they will be desperate to avoid. In the Final Qualification Tournament, Samoa faces a potentially historic fall.
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